Last data update: May 13, 2024. (Total: 46773 publications since 2009)
Records 1-18 (of 18 Records) |
Query Trace: Ravi A[original query] |
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How did the 2022 global mpox outbreak happen? A travel-associated case 6 months earlier may provide important clues
Kreuze MA , Minhaj FS , Duwell M , Gigante CM , Kim AM , Crum D , Perlmutter R , Rubin JH , Myers R , Lukula SL , Ravi-Caldwell N , Sockwell D , Chen TH , de Perio MA , Hughes CM , Davidson WB , Wilkins K , Baird N , Lowe D , Li Y , McCollum AM , Blythe D , Rao AK . Travel Med Infect Dis 2023 55 102618 Approximately 6 months before an unprecedented global mpox outbreak was first identified in the United Kingdom, an adult man was diagnosed with mpox in Maryland, USA [1]. At the time of the investigation, the case was only the eighth monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection diagnosed in a non-African country during the preceding 3 years, all of which were associated with recent travel to Nigeria [2]. One of these 8 imported cases occurred in Texas, USA four months earlier; that case exhibited features clinically consistent with those classically reported in Africa (i.e., large and diffuse lesions, high fever and prodromal symptoms, umbilicated lesions in the same stage of development on specific anatomic surfaces) [3]. In contrast, the Maryland case was milder in severity and had signs that, at the time, were considered unusual for mpox. Several aspects of the Maryland case are noteworthy and in retrospect may offer clues to the origins of the 2022 global mpox outbreak, as well as explain how mpox might have spread undetected before emerging as a global outbreak. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Estimated effectiveness of JYNNEOS vaccine in preventing Mpox: A Multijurisdictional Case-Control Study - United States, August 19, 2022-March 31, 2023
Dalton AF , Diallo AO , Chard AN , Moulia DL , Deputy NP , Fothergill A , Kracalik I , Wegner CW , Markus TM , Pathela P , Still WL , Hawkins S , Mangla AT , Ravi N , Licherdell E , Britton A , Lynfield R , Sutton M , Hansen AP , Betancourt GS , Rowlands JV , Chai SJ , Fisher R , Danza P , Farley M , Zipprich J , Prahl G , Wendel KA , Niccolai L , Castilho JL , Payne DC , Cohn AC , Feldstein LR . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (20) 553-558 As of March 31, 2023, more than 30,000 monkeypox (mpox) cases had been reported in the United States in an outbreak that has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender persons (1). JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 for the prevention of smallpox and mpox via subcutaneous injection as a 2-dose series (0.5 mL per dose, administered 4 weeks apart) (2). To expand vaccine access, an Emergency Use Authorization was issued by FDA on August 9, 2022, for dose-sparing intradermal injection of JYNNEOS as a 2-dose series (0.1 mL per dose, administered 4 weeks apart) (3). Vaccination was available to persons with known or presumed exposure to a person with mpox (postexposure prophylaxis [PEP]), as well as persons at increased risk for mpox or who might benefit from vaccination (preexposure mpox prophylaxis [PrEP]) (4). Because information on JYNNEOS vaccine effectiveness (VE) is limited, a matched case-control study was conducted in 12 U.S. jurisdictions,(†) including nine Emerging Infections Program sites and three Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity sites,(§) to evaluate VE against mpox among MSM and transgender adults aged 18-49 years. During August 19, 2022-March 31, 2023, a total of 309 case-patients were matched to 608 control patients. Adjusted VE was 75.2% (95% CI = 61.2% to 84.2%) for partial vaccination (1 dose) and 85.9% (95% CI = 73.8% to 92.4%) for full vaccination (2 doses). Adjusted VE for full vaccination by subcutaneous, intradermal, and heterologous routes of administration was 88.9% (95% CI = 56.0% to 97.2%), 80.3% (95% CI = 22.9% to 95.0%), and 86.9% (95% CI = 69.1% to 94.5%), respectively. Adjusted VE for full vaccination among immunocompromised participants was 70.2% (95% CI = -37.9% to 93.6%) and among immunocompetent participants was 87.8% (95% CI = 57.5% to 96.5%). JYNNEOS is effective at reducing the risk for mpox. Because duration of protection of 1 versus 2 doses remains unknown, persons at increased risk for mpox exposure should receive the 2-dose series as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP),(¶) regardless of administration route or immunocompromise status. |
An algorithmic approach to identifying the aetiology of acute encephalitis syndrome in India: results of a 4-year enhanced surveillance study
Ravi V , Hameed SKS , Desai A , Mani RS , Reddy V , Velayudhan A , Yadav R , Jain A , Saikia L , Borthakur AK , Sharma A , Mohan DG , Bhandopadhyay B , Bhattacharya N , Inamdar L , Hossain S , Daves S , Sejvar J , Dhariwal AC , Sen PK , Venkatesh S , Prasad J , Laserson K , Srikantiah P . Lancet Glob Health 2022 10 (5) e685-e693 BACKGROUND: Annual outbreaks of acute encephalitis syndrome pose a major health burden in India. Although Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) accounts for around 15% of reported cases, the aetiology of most cases remains unknown. We aimed to establish an enhanced surveillance network and to use a standardised diagnostic algorithm to conduct a systematic evaluation of acute encephalitis syndrome in India. METHODS: In this large-scale, systematic surveillance study in India, patients presenting with acute encephalitis syndrome (ie, acute onset of fever with altered mental status, seizure, or both) to any of the 18 participating hospitals across Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam were evaluated for JEV (serum and cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] IgM ELISA) per standard of care. In enhanced surveillance, JEV IgM-negative specimens were additionally evaluated for scrub typhus, dengue virus, and West Nile virus by serum IgM ELISA, and for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, dengue virus, herpes simplex virus, and enterovirus by CSF PCR across five referral laboratories. In 2017, chikungunya and Leptospira serum IgM by ELISA and Zika virus serum and CSF by PCR were also tested. FINDINGS: Of 10107 patients with acute encephalitis syndrome enrolled in enhanced surveillance between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 5734 (578%) of 9917 participants with available data were male and 6179 (627%) of 9856 were children aged 15 years and younger. Among patients who provided a sample of either CSF or serum in enhanced surveillance, an aetiology was identified in 1921 (332%) of 5786 patients enrolled between 2014 and 2016 and in 1484 (343%) of 4321 patients enrolled in 2017. The most commonly identified aetiologies were JEV (1023 [177%] of 5786 patients), scrub typhus (645 [185%] of 3489), and dengue virus (161 [52%] of 3124). Among participants who provided both CSF and serum specimens, an aetiology was identified in 1446 (383%) of 3774 patients enrolled between 2014 and 2016 and in 936 (403%) of 2324 enrolled in 2017, representing a 31-times increase in the number of patients with acute encephalitis syndrome with an identified aetiology compared with standard care alone (299 [129%]; p<00001). INTERPRETATION: Implementation of a systematic diagnostic algorithm in an enhanced surveillance platform resulted in a 31-times increase in identification of the aetiology of acute encephalitis syndrome, besides JEV alone, and highlighted the importance of scrub typhus and dengue virus as important infectious aetiologies in India. These findings have prompted revision of the national testing guidelines for this syndrome across India. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Applying an innovative model of disaster resilience at the neighborhood level: The COPEWELL New York City Experience
Slemp CC , Sisco S , Jean MC , Ahmed MS , Kanarek NF , Eros-Sarnyai M , Gonzalez IA , Igusa T , Lane K , Tirado FP , Tria M , Lin S , Martins VN , Ravi S , Kendra JM , Carbone EG , Links JM . Public Health Rep 2020 135 (5) 565-570 Community resilience is a community's ability to maintain functioning (ie, delivery of services) during and after a disaster event. The Composite of Post-Event Well-Being (COPEWELL) is a system dynamics model of community resilience that predicts a community's disaster-specific functioning over time. We explored COPEWELL's usefulness as a practice-based tool for understanding community resilience and to engage partners in identifying resilience-strengthening strategies. In 2014, along with academic partners, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene organized an interdisciplinary work group that used COPEWELL to advance cross-sector engagement, design approaches to understand and strengthen community resilience, and identify local data to explore COPEWELL implementation at neighborhood levels. The authors conducted participant interviews and collected shared experiences to capture information on lessons learned. The COPEWELL model led to an improved understanding of community resilience among agency members and community partners. Integration and enhanced alignment of efforts among preparedness, disaster resilience, and community development emerged. The work group identified strategies to strengthen resilience. Searches of neighborhood-level data sets and mapping helped prioritize communities that are vulnerable to disasters (eg, medically vulnerable, socially isolated, low income). These actions increased understanding of available data, identified data gaps, and generated ideas for future data collection. The COPEWELL model can be used to drive an understanding of resilience, identify key geographic areas at risk during and after a disaster, spur efforts to build on local metrics, and result in innovative interventions that integrate and align efforts among emergency preparedness, community development, and broader public health initiatives. |
Zika inquiries made to the CDC-INFO System, December 2015-September 2017
Sell TK , Watson C , Meyer D , Snyder MR , Ravi SJ , McGinty EE , Pechta LE , Rose DA , Podgornik MN , Lubell KM . Emerg Infect Dis 2020 26 (5) 1022-1024 We examined Zika-related inquiries to CDC-INFO, the national contact center for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to identify potential communication gaps. The most frequently asked questions related to travel or geographic location of Zika (42% of all inquiries), information about laboratory testing (13%), or acquiring a Zika test (11%). |
A public health systems view of risk communication about Zika
Kirk Sell T , Ravi SJ , Watson C , Meyer D , Pechta LE , Rose DA , Lubell KM , Podgornik MN , Schoch-Spana M . Public Health Rep 2020 135 (3) 33354920912215 OBJECTIVES: The spread of Zika virus throughout Latin America and parts of the United States in 2016 and 2017 presented a challenge to public health communicators. The objective of our study was to describe emergency risk communication practices during the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak to inform future infectious disease communication efforts. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 13 public health policy makers and practitioners, 10 public information officers, and 5 vector-control officials from May through August 2017. RESULTS: Within the public health macro-environment, extended outbreak timeframe, government trust, US residence status, and economic insecurity set the backdrop for Zika communication efforts. Limited resources, staffing, and partnerships negatively affected public health structural capacity for communication efforts. Public health communicators and practitioners used a range of processes and practices to engage in education and outreach, including fieldwork, community meetings, and contact with health care providers. Overall, public health agencies' primary goals were to prevent Zika infection, reduce transmission, and prevent adverse birth outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Lessons learned from this disease response included understanding the macro-environment, developing partnerships across agencies and the community, and valuing diverse message platforms. These lessons can be used to improve communication approaches for health officials at the local, state, and federal levels during future infectious disease outbreaks. |
Vector control in Zika-affected communities: Local views on community engagement and public health ethics during outbreaks
Schoch-Spana M , Watson C , Ravi S , Meyer D , Pechta LE , Rose DA , Lubell KM , Podgornik MN , Sell TK . Prev Med Rep 2020 18 101059 Aerial spraying of products to kill larvae or adult mosquitoes is a public health measure used to control vector-borne diseases. In some outbreaks, the intervention has evoked controversy and community resistance. This study evaluated how local opinion leaders in US localities affected by Zika think about community engagement in public health policies for outbreak response. In December 2017 through March 2018, 4 focus groups were convened in Houston, TX, New Orleans, LA, Miami, FL, and Brooklyn, NY. They discussed a hypothetical scenario that featured vector control by aerial spraying. Participants (N = 20) more readily accepted this vector control method under 4 conditions: They were informed of alternatives, benefits, and risks for human health and the environment. Public health claims were backed by objective evidence and an authority figure genuinely working in the community's interests. They received timely notice about how to mitigate toxin exposure. And, aerial spraying helped to protect vulnerable individuals. The community engagement requirements of the local opinion leaders resonate with core principles of recent public health ethics frameworks: namely, personal autonomy, transparency, reasonableness, and solidarity. Participants foresaw problems with community consent in an era of growing social media use and mistrust in governmental and scientific authority. They also debated whether health authorities should use moral-based arguments, in addition to science-based ones, to communicate aerial spraying's risks and benefits. |
Dengue virus is an under-recognised causative agent of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES): Results from a four year AES surveillance study of Japanese encephalitis in selected states of IndiaDengue virus is an under-recognised causative
Ravi V , Hameed SKS , Desai A , Mani RS , Reddy V , Velayudhan A , Yadav R , Jain A , Saikia L , Borthakur AK , Mohan DG , Bhandopadhyay B , Bhattacharya N , Dhariwal AC , Sen PK , Venkatesh S , Prasad J , Laserson K , Srikantiah P . Int J Infect Dis 2019 84S S19-S24 BACKGROUND: Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) surveillance in India has indicated that Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) accounts for 5-35% of AES cases annually; the etiology remains unknown in the remaining cases. We implemented comprehensive AES surveillance to identify other etiological agents of AES, with emphasis on dengue virus. METHODS: Serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens were collected from patients enrolled prospectively in AES surveillance from 2014-2017 at selected sites of three high burden states of India. All samples were initially tested for JEV IgM. Specimens negative for JEV by serology were tested for IgM to scrub typhus, dengue virus (DEN), and West Nile virus; all JEV IgM-negative CSF samples were tested by PCR for S.pneumoniae, N.meningitidis, H.influenzae, herpes simplex virus type 1, enteroviruses and DEN. RESULTS: Of 10,107 AES patients, an etiology could be established in 49.2% of patients including JEV (16%), scrub typus (16%) and DEN (5.2%) as the top three agents. Amongst the DEN positive cases (359/6892), seven (2%) were positive only for dengue virus RNA: one in serum and six in CSF. CONCLUSION: Amongst the pathogens identified, dengue accounted for 5% of all AES cases and was one of the three common etiological agents. These results underscore the importance of including dengue virus in routine testing of AES cases. |
Frequency of risk-related news media messages in 2016 coverage of Zika virus
Sell TK , Watson C , Meyer D , Kronk M , Ravi S , Pechta LE , Lubell KM , Rose DA . Risk Anal 2018 38 (12) 2514-2524 News media plays a large role in the information the public receives during an infectious disease outbreak, and may influence public knowledge and perceptions of risk. This study analyzed and described the content of U.S. news media coverage of Zika virus and Zika response during 2016. A random selection of 800 Zika-related news stories from 25 print and television news sources was analyzed. The study examined 24 different messages that appeared in news media articles and characterized them using theories of risk perception as messages with characteristics that could increase perception of risk (risk-elevating messages; n = 14), messages that could decrease perception of risk (risk-minimizing messages; n = 8), or messages about travel or testing guidance (n = 2). Overall, 96% of news stories in the study sample contained at least one or more risk-elevating message(s) and 61% contained risk-minimizing message(s). The frequency of many messages changed after local transmission was confirmed in Florida, and differed between sources in locations with or without local transmission in 2016. Forty percent of news stories included messages about negative potential outcomes of Zika virus infection without mentioning ways to reduce risk. Findings from this study may help inform current federal, state, and local Zika responses by offering a detailed analysis of how news media are covering the outbreak and response activities as well as identifying specific messages appearing more or less frequently than intended. Findings identifying the types of messages that require greater emphasis may also assist public health communicators in responding more effectively to future outbreaks. |
Trends in childhood pneumococcal vaccine coverage in Shanghai, China, 2005-2011: a retrospective cohort study
Boulton ML , Ravi NS , Sun X , Huang Z , Wagner AL . BMC Public Health 2016 16 109 BACKGROUND: In China, the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) and the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) are not offered under the government's Expanded Program on Immunization and are instead administered for a fee. PCV7 is more effective and covers more serotypes associated with invasive disease in children, but is also more expensive, than PPSV23. Because of their expense, there is concern that these vaccines, especially PCV7, have low uptake particularly among non-locals, migrants from outside of Shanghai. This paper characterizes the differential coverage of PCV7 and PPSV23 between locals and non-locals in Shanghai, and illustrates coverage trends over time. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, children born between 2005 and 2011 were sampled from the Shanghai Immunization Program Information System. Bivariate and multivariable analyses examined the relationships between demographic characteristics, residency status (non-locals vs locals), and vaccination coverage. RESULTS: PPSV23 coverage (29.8 %) among children over 2 years of age was higher than PCV7 coverage (10.1 %) for locals and non-locals. Uptake of PCV7 increased substantially after children were 2 years of age. Overall, non-local populations had higher PPSV23 coverage (OR: 1.34; 98 % CI: 1.22, 1.46) but lower PCV7 coverage (OR: 0.617, 98 % CI: 0.547, 0.695) than locals. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for increasing overall pneumococcal coverage in Shanghai children, particularly with the more effective PCV7 vaccine. Morbidity and mortality due to invasive pneumococcal disease for children <1 year of age are unlikely to be mitigated if the current age-related vaccination patterns are not improved. |
Genome Sequences of Nine Bordetella holmesii Strains Isolated in the United States.
Harvill ET , Goodfield LL , Ivanov Y , Smallridge WE , Meyer JA , Cassiday PK , Tondella ML , Brinkac L , Sanka R , Kim M , Losada L . Genome Announc 2014 2 (3) An increasing number of pertussis-like cases are attributed to the emergent pathogen Bordetella holmesii. The genomes of 9 clinical isolates show that they are clonal, lack the virulence factors encoded by B. pertussis, and are more similar to nonpertussis bordetellae. New markers for B. holmesii can be developed using these sequences. |
Utility of IgM ELISA, TaqMan real-time PCR, reverse transcription PCR, and RT-LAMP assay for the diagnosis of Chikungunya fever
Reddy V , Ravi V , Desai A , Parida M , Powers AM , Johnson BW . J Med Virol 2012 84 (11) 1771-1778 Chikungunya fever a re-emerging infection with expanding geographical boundaries, can mimic symptoms of other infections like dengue, malaria which makes the definitive diagnosis of the infection important. The present study compares the utility of four laboratory diagnostic methods viz. IgM capture ELISA, an in house reverse transcription PCR for the diagnosis of Chikungunya fever, TaqMan real-time PCR, and a one step reverse transcription-loop mediated isothermal amplification assay (RT-LAMP). Out of the 70 serum samples tested, 29 (41%) were positive for Chikungunya IgM antibody by ELISA and 50 (71%) samples were positive by one of the three molecular assays. CHIKV specific nucleic acid was detected in 33/70 (47%) by reverse transcription PCR, 46/70 (66%) by TaqMan real-time PCR, and 43/70 (62%) by RT-LAMP assay. A majority of the samples (62/70; 89%) were positive by at least one of the four assays used in the study. The molecular assays were more sensitive for diagnosis in the early stages of illness (2-5 days post onset) when antibodies were not detectable. In the later stages of illness, the IgM ELISA is a more sensitive diagnostic test. In conclusion we recommend that the IgM ELISA be used as an initial screening test followed one of the molecular assays in samples that are collected in the early phase of illness and negative for CHIKV IgM antibodies. Such as approach would enable rapid confirmation of the diagnosis and implementation of public health measures especially during outbreaks. (2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.) |
Evaluation of IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits for detection of IgM against Japanese encephalitis virus in cerebrospinal fluid samples
Ravi V , Robinson JS , Russell BJ , Desai A , Ramamurty N , Featherstone D , Johnson BW . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2009 81 (6) 1144-50 Infection with Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major public health problem in Asia. Detection of JEV-specific IgM in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by the IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MAC-ELISA) is currently the most widely used diagnostic method to detect JEV infection. Because of the possible presence of IgM cross-reactivity with other flaviviruses in serum and the high ratio of inapparent-to-apparent JEV infections, a positive result in serum only suggests a recent infection and not necessarily an encephalitic illness caused by JEV. Consequently, detection of JEV-specific IgM in CSF assumes great diagnostic relevance. We evaluated two commercial JEV MAC-ELISA kits using 60 CSF samples obtained from patients with acute encephalitis syndrome. The Panbio and XCyton kits had sensitivities of 65-80% and 95% and specificities of 90% and 97.5%, respectively. Performance information on these commercial JEV MAC-ELISA kits for CSF should assist in laboratory-based JE surveillance programs. |
Use of combined oral contraceptives post abortion
Gaffield ME , Kapp N , Ravi A . Contraception 2009 80 (4) 355-62 BACKGROUND: Providing combined oral contraceptives (COCs) following surgical or medical induced abortion offers women an opportune moment to initiate a reliable contraceptive method. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review, searching MEDLINE and The Cochrane Library for articles in any language concerning COC use following spontaneous, induced (medical or surgical) or septic abortion, from 1966 through June 2008. Seven articles were identified and evaluated using the United States Preventive Services Task Force system. RESULTS: Immediate COC initiation after first-trimester medical or surgical induced abortion did not increase side effects or prolong vaginal bleeding compared with use of a placebo, copper-bearing intrauterine device (IUD), nonhormonal contraceptive method or COC initiation at a later time. Initiating COCs after first-trimester surgical abortion produced small increases in coagulation parameters compared with IUD use; although they are statistically significant, their clinical relevance is unlikely. No study examined second-trimester induced or spontaneous abortion, or septic abortion. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence shows that COCs can be safely initiated immediately following surgical and medical abortion in the first-trimester of pregnancy. |
Oral contraceptives and family history of breast cancer
Gaffield ME , Culwell KR , Ravi A . Contraception 2009 80 (4) 372-80 BACKGROUND: Questions remain regarding whether oral contraceptive (OC) use among women with a family history of breast cancer increases disease risk. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review by searching MEDLINE and CENTRAL databases for evidence (in all languages) published in peer-reviewed journals from 1966 to July 2008 that provided estimates of breast cancer risk according to family history. Twelve articles were identified and the quality of each study was assessed using the United States Preventive Services Task Force grading system. RESULTS: Results from 10 studies and one pooled analysis of 54 studies suggest that the use of OCs does not significantly modify the risk of breast cancer among women with a familial history of breast cancer; however, evidence from four studies shows that some women may be at a greater risk, particularly women who took OCs prior to 1975. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence shows that women with a family history of breast cancer do not increase their disease risk by using OCs. |
Progestogen-only contraceptive use in obese women
Curtis KM , Ravi A , Gaffield ML . Contraception 2009 80 (4) 346-54 BACKGROUND: The objective of this systematic review is to determine whether obese women who use progestogen-only contraceptives are more likely to experience weight gain or serious adverse events as compared to nonobese users. STUDY DESIGN: We searched PubMed for all articles (in all languages) published in peer-reviewed journals from database inception through October 2008, for evidence relevant to obesity and progestogen-only contraceptives. We used standard abstract forms and grading systems to summarize and assess the quality of the evidence. RESULTS: From 579 articles, we identified nine studies fitting our selection criteria. Evidence from five studies suggests that among adult women, baseline weight or body mass index is not associated with weight gain among depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) users (Level II-2, Fair). Evidence from three studies suggests that among adolescent women, overweight or obese DMPA users may gain more weight than normal weight DMPA users or overweight/obese nonusers (Level II-2, Fair). Evidence from one small study of Norplant users showed no differences in weight gain by baseline weight (Level II-3, Poor). We did not identify studies of other progestogen-only contraceptive methods that examined weight change by baseline weight, nor did we identify studies that reported on any serious adverse events by baseline weight. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent DMPA users who are obese may gain more weight than normal weight users. This observation was not seen in adult DMPA users or adolescent Norplant users. |
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